Politics & Government

Poll Says NJ Would Re-Elect Bob Menendez

Info says half don't know who he is, but he'd still beat challenger.

Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez is doing fairly well in the latest statewide poll from ’s PublicMind polling center—even though about have of the voters in the state apparently have never heard of him.

Maybe his relative success (the poll says he'd still beat potential Republican challenger John Crowley handily) is due to just how blue of a state New Jersey is. Maybe it has something to do with comparative name recognition—84 percent of those polled say they don't know who Crowley is. Or maybe voters, overall, just like the job the senator's been doing for the last five years.

But is any of that true in Montville? In heavily Republican Morris County?

Find out what's happening in Montvillewith free, real-time updates from Patch.

So voters, tell us what you think. Would you re-elect Menendez? Do you want Crowley in office? Someone else? Tell us in the comments.

Here's FDU's release on its latest poll:

Find out what's happening in Montvillewith free, real-time updates from Patch.

Menendez/Crowley Matchup

Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, who is closely tied to the president and up for re-election at the same time as Obama in 2012, seems to have raised his low profile only a little in recent weeks, but nonetheless handily defeats Republican John Crowley in a hypothetical matchup. 

According to the most recent statewide poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, half of Garden State voters (50%) either have not heard of Menendez or have no opinion of him; 30% have a favorable view of him; and 20% have an unfavorable view. 

Still, Menendez easily beats a potential Republican challenger, biotech executive John Crowley, in a hypothetical matchup, 45%-26%. Part of the gap is accounted for in Republican hesitation.  While nearly four of five (78%) Democrats pick Menendez in the matchup, only about three in five (62%) Republicans pick Crowley. At this early stage of the game, 29% of Republicans were unsure or picked neither candidate.

Among Democrats only, 45% say they haven’t heard of the incumbent senator or have no opinion of him, but that is an improvement from April’s mark of 54%.  And 48% of Democrats say they have a favorable view of Menendez, better than April’s 41%. Just 6% of Democrats have an unfavorable view him.

Among all voters, 84% say they haven’t heard of Crowley, while another 10% say they have heard of him but have no opinion. Even 84% of Republicans say they have not heard of him and another 12% have no opinion of him.

Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg is viewed favorably by 37% of New Jersey voters and unfavorably by 24%, little changed since April (35% - 28%).  Among Democrats, 53% have a favorable opinion of the senior New Jersey senator and 8% have an unfavorable view.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 804 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from May 16 through May 22, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.eduFor more information, please call 201.692.7032 

Methodology, Questions, and Tables

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind was conducted by telephone from May 16, 2011, through May 22, 2011, using a randomly selected sample of 804 registered voters statewide.  The margin of error for a sample of 804 randomly selected respondents is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  The margin of error for subgroups is larger and varies by the size of that subgroup. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a land-line phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone-only-households, interviewed in the same time frame.  The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, race and gender.

 

Haven’t heard of

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Unsure/ no opinion

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

Frank Lautenberg 16 12 25 23 10 14 Republicans only 11 3 17 22 16 31 Independents only 15 8 22 28 12 15 Democrats only 17 19 34 22  5   3 Previous measures





April 2011 15% 10% 25% 22% 13% 15% Feb. 2011 14% 13% 26% 19% 13% 14% Nov 2010 6% 15% 27% 21% 14% 17% March 2010 9% 14% 28% 20% 14% 15% Jan 2010 8% 12% 23% 19% 20% 15% Jan 2009 8% 13% 30% 19% 14% 16%
Haven’t heard of Very favorable Somewhat favorable Unsure/ no opinion Somewhat Unfavorable Very unfavorable Bob Menendez 22% 10% 20% 28% 8% 12% Republicans only 21 2 8 29 14 26 Independents only 24 5 15 36 5 15 Democrats only 20 18 30 25 4 2 Previous measures             April 2011 21% 8% 20% 31% 9% 10% Feb. 2011 21% 10% 19% 28% 11% 10% Nov 2010 15% 11% 20% 29% 12% 13% March 2010 17% 8% 21% 28% 13% 12% Jan 2010 17% 7% 21% 27% 15% 13% Jan 2009 17% 9% 20% 30% 13% 11%
Haven’t heard of Very favorable Somewhat favorable Unsure / no opinion Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable John Crowley 84% 1% 3% 10% 2% -- Republicans only 84 -- 2 12 1 1 Independents only 84 1 2 12 1 1 Democrats only 86 1 2 8 3 -- Previous measures





October 2008 81% 1% 1% 13% 4% 1% In another year, Robert Menendez will be coming up for re-election to the United States Senate… If the election were now, would you vote for …  or …?   All (current) Dem Ind Rep Jan. 2011 Dem Ind Rep Robert Menendez, the Democrat 45% 78 25 9 44% 77 27   8 John Crowley, the Republican 26% 4 18 62 30%   7 18 64 unsure/neither/other (vol.) 29% 18 57 29 27% 16 55 28


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